HVAC Technician Shortage by State: Openings, New Graduates and Pay (2026 Index)

How the index is built

Download the calculations (CSV)

How large is the HVAC technician shortage? Openings outrun training awards by about 12,000 a year

BLS projects 40,600 HVAC openings a year from 2025 to 2035. In the state-comparable 2024 to 2034 projection the figure is 40,100, against 28,050 HVAC awards conferred in 2022-23, a gap of 12,050 a year.

HVAC mechanics and installers (SOC 49-9021) held 409,670 wage and salary jobs in May 2025, according to BLS OEWS.

The BLS 2025 to 2035 projections count 440,900 workers in 2025, including the self-employed, and 489,100 by 2035.

Most openings are replacements. Of the 40,600 openings projected each year, 23,400 come from workers moving to other occupations and 12,300 from workers leaving the labor force, which includes retirement.

Employment growth adds about 4,820 openings a year (48,200 over ten years), so 87.9% of annual openings replace people who leave.

Occupational openings: BLS's projected average number of job openings per year, equal to employment growth plus labor force exits plus transfers to other occupations. It is a need estimate, not a count of posted vacancies.

For an owner, the plain reading is that every year the industry needs to bring in roughly as many new technicians as one in ten current jobs (40,600 openings against 440,900 workers, or 9.2%), and schools supply most but not all of them.

Where training falls furthest behind openings: Vermont, the Mountain West and New York

Nationally, schools confer 70.0 HVAC awards per 100 projected annual openings. 43 of 51 jurisdictions are below 100 and 25 are below 50.

The lowest ratios among states are Vermont (0.0), Wyoming (1.4), Idaho (2.4), Montana (3.6), Oregon (10.8), Hawaii (16.4) awards per 100 openings (2022-23 awards against 2024 to 2034 annual openings).

New York stands out among large states: 2,060 projected openings a year and 500 HVAC awards in 2022-23, or 24.3 per 100.

Florida has the most openings (4,430 a year) and conferred 2,836 awards, 64.0 per 100. Texas (97.4) and California (93.3) come close to parity.

At the other end, Alaska (382.5), Illinois (201.1), Kentucky (159.8), Mississippi (138.4), Georgia (123.9) confer more awards than they have openings. Alaska's figure is driven by one institution, Charter College, which conferred most of the state's 153 awards; Illinois has several large Chicago-area trade schools.

For an owner, a low ratio means fewer school-trained applicants per opening in that state, so in-house training and apprenticeship carry more of the hiring load.

Minnesota and Illinois have the fewest technicians per home; Idaho has the most

The U.S. had 30.6 HVAC technicians per 10,000 occupied homes in 2025. Among states, the figure runs from 17.6 in Minnesota to 59.5 in Idaho.

The lowest densities are in District of Columbia (12.0), Minnesota (17.6), Illinois (19.0), Alaska (21.9), Mississippi (22.6), measured as OEWS May 2025 employment per 10,000 occupied homes from the ACS 2025 1-year estimates.

The highest are Idaho (59.5), Utah (46.2), New Hampshire (44.6), Virginia (42.2), Florida (42.0). Idaho and Utah, two of the fastest-growing states in the 2024 to 2034 projections, sit at the top.

Density is a rough measure. Technicians also serve offices, schools, factories and data centers, and OEWS leaves out owner-operators, so states with many one-truck shops are understated.

For an owner, a low density means each technician covers more households on average, so losing one technician leaves a larger hole in the schedule.

HVAC pay only kept pace with inflation from 2015 to 2022, then pulled ahead

The national median HVAC wage rose from $45,110 in May 2015 to $61,010 in May 2025, up 35.2%, exactly matching the 35.2% rise in consumer prices.

In May 2025 dollars, the HVAC median was $60,980 in 2015 and $61,010 in 2025, a real change of 0.0%.

The all-occupations median rose 40.8% over the same decade, or 4.2% after inflation, so HVAC pay lost ground relative to the typical U.S. worker over ten years.

The recent years look different. From May 2022 to May 2025 the HVAC median rose 18.7% against 10.0% inflation, a real gain of 7.9%.

Employment grew 49.1% over the decade, from 274,680 to 409,670. A market that added that many workers without real pay growth until 2022 is consistent with pay pressure that built mainly after 2022 rather than across the whole decade.

North Dakota pays the most once living costs are counted; DC pays the most before

In nominal terms the top median HVAC wages are in District of Columbia ($84,390), Alaska ($77,430), Illinois ($77,410). Adjusted for regional prices, North Dakota leads at $83,740.

BEA regional price parities put North Dakota's 2024 price level at 88.959 (U.S. = 100), so its $74,490 median buys about $83,740 at average U.S. prices.

The lowest adjusted medians are in Alabama ($54,460), New Mexico ($54,520), West Virginia ($54,580).

Florida, with the most openings, ranks 48 of 51 on adjusted pay ($54,800). Pressure there shows up in volume of openings rather than in pay.

For an owner, the adjusted figure is the better guide to what a technician can earn by moving, and so to which neighboring states compete for the same workers.

Montana and Washington score tightest on a four-part index; Alabama scores loosest

The composite index averages four percentile scores: training awards per opening, technicians per home, projected growth and price-adjusted pay. 100 is tightest.

The highest-scoring states are Montana (76.0), Washington (76.0), North Dakota (74.5), Oregon (72.5), Wyoming (70.0), Minnesota (67.5). The District of Columbia scores 77.8 but has only 40 openings a year and no HVAC schools, so it is shown but not ranked in the text.

The lowest scores belong to Alabama (22.0), Maine (29.5), Virginia (31.2), Michigan (31.2), Oklahoma (31.8). Alabama combines more awards per opening than most states with the lowest price-adjusted pay.

The index separates two kinds of pressure. Montana, Wyoming and Oregon score tight because few HVAC awards are conferred there and growth is fast. Minnesota and Illinois score tight because they have few technicians per home and high adjusted pay, even though Illinois confers 201.1 awards per 100 openings.

Most HVAC awards are certificates of under two years, and awards are rising

Of 28,050 HVAC awards in 2022-23, 38.3% were certificates under one year and 9.7% were associate degrees. Awards across all IPEDS institutions rose 23.9% from 2018-19 to 2023-24 (latest year provisional).

Certificates of one to two years were the largest group in 2022-23, with 14,366 awards. Certificates under one year totaled 10,746, and associate degrees 2,731.

Across all institutions including territories, HVAC awards went from 26,347 in 2018-19 to 28,884 in 2022-23 (final) and 32,648 in 2023-24 (provisional).

BLS lists a postsecondary nondegree award as the typical entry education, followed by long-term on-the-job training. The Occupational Outlook Handbook says HVAC programs generally last from 6 months to 2 years and apprenticeships usually last several years.

Federal rule 40 CFR 82.161 requires anyone who could open a refrigerant circuit to pass an EPA-approved certification exam (read 2026-11-02). State licensing rules are covered in our separate report on HVAC license requirements by state.

Key findings

1. HVAC mechanics and installers held 409,670 wage and salary jobs in the U.S. in May 2025.^[2]
2. Including the self-employed, BLS counts 440,900 HVAC mechanics and installers in 2025 and projects 489,100 by 2035, a 10.9% increase.^[4]
3. U.S. employment across all occupations is projected to grow 3.5% from 2025 to 2035, so HVAC growth of 10.9% is about three times as fast.^[4][5]
4. BLS projects 12,300 HVAC workers a year to leave the labor force and 23,400 a year to move to other occupations from 2025 to 2035.^[8]
5. In the 2022-23 award year, institutions in the 50 states and DC conferred 28,050 HVAC certificates and degrees under CIP 47.0201 and 15.0501.^[10]
6. Provisional 2023-24 IPEDS data show 31,690 HVAC awards, which would raise the national ratio to 79.0 per 100 openings.^[11][9]
7. New York projects 2,060 HVAC openings a year (2024 to 2034) but conferred 500 HVAC awards in 2022-23, or 24.3 per 100 openings.^[9][10]
8. Florida has the most projected HVAC openings of any state, 4,430 a year, against 2,836 awards in 2022-23 (64.0 per 100).^[9][10]
9. Vermont and the District of Columbia reported no HVAC awards under these two CIP codes in 2022-23; Wyoming reported 1 and Idaho 25.^[10]
10. The U.S. had 30.6 HVAC technicians per 10,000 occupied homes in 2025, ranging from 17.6 in Minnesota to 59.5 in Idaho.^[2][1][14]
11. Adjusted for 2024 regional prices, North Dakota has the highest median HVAC wage ($83,740) and Alabama the lowest ($54,460).^[1][15]
12. The national HVAC median wage rose 35.2% from May 2015 to May 2025, the same as the 35.2% rise in the CPI-U, while the all-occupations median rose 4.2% after inflation.^[17][2][16]
13. OEWS HVAC employment grew 49.1% from May 2015 (274,680) to May 2025.^[17][2]
14. Certificates under one year made up 38.3% of 2022-23 HVAC awards, and associate degrees 9.7%.^[10]

Summary for decision makers

• The U.S. had 409,670 wage and salary HVAC mechanics and installers in May 2025 (BLS OEWS), with a median wage of $61,010.
• BLS projects 40,600 openings a year from 2025 to 2035; 87.9% of them replace workers who leave or change occupations rather than new jobs.
• Colleges and trade schools in the 50 states and DC conferred 28,050 HVAC awards in 2022-23 (final data), 70.0 for every 100 projected annual openings.
• 43 of 51 jurisdictions confer fewer HVAC awards than they have openings; 25 confer fewer than half.
• On a four-part composite index, Montana and Washington score tightest among states (76.0 of 100); Alabama scores loosest (22.0).
• After inflation, the national median HVAC wage was flat from May 2015 to May 2025 (0.0%), then rose 7.9% in real terms from May 2022 to May 2025.
• Trade-press shortage totals such as 110,000 technicians have no published method; this index uses official counts only.

Frequently asked questions

Related guides, services and research

• Sell my HVAC business: the owner's guide
• R410A Phase Out Tracker: The Dates, the HFC Cap and What Refrigerant Prices Did (2026)
• Heat Pump Sales vs Gas Furnaces: US Shipments From 2009 to August 2026
• HVAC Business Profit Margin: What the Census and IRS Data Show (2026)
• HVAC License Requirements by State: Who Holds the License and What Happens When That Person Leaves (2026)
• All HVAC business research

Reproduce this analysis

Every figure comes from the files below. The scripts that pulled and computed them are kept with the report and can be re-run.

Data quality and exclusions

• Dropped HVAC awards at institutions outside the 50 states and DC: 833 in Puerto Rico in 2022-23 (951 in 2023-24) and a handful in the Freely Associated States.
• Dropped Guam, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands from the OEWS state file and Guam and Puerto Rico from the projections file, leaving 51 jurisdictions in every input.
• Kept first-major awards only (MAJORNUM = 1) so a student with two majors is not counted twice; this removed 2 second-major HVAC awards in 2023-24 and none in 2022-23.
• Checked IPEDS award-level codes: the HVAC rows contain only detailed levels (20, 21, 2, 3, 4, 5), so no aggregate level was double counted.
• No OEWS state employment or median wage cell for SOC 49-9021 was suppressed in May 2025; had any been, it would have been left missing, not set to zero.
• Vermont and DC reported 0 HVAC awards under the two CIP codes in both years; their ratios are 0.0 and are reported as observed.
• Idaho's projections base-year employment (8,500) is far above its OEWS count (4,550); both are reported as published, and the index uses each in its own metric.
• Alaska's ratio (382.5) rests on 40 openings and one large institution; small states (under 100 openings a year) should be read as indicative.

Methodology

Source selection: only official, keyless public files were used: BLS OEWS May 2025 state and national files, BLS Employment Projections 2025 to 2035, state long-term projections 2024 to 2034 from Projections Central, NCES IPEDS Completions and directory files, the ACS 2025 1-year summary file, BEA regional price parities and the BLS CPI-U flat file. Trade-press shortage figures are cited as Tier 3 context only.

Inclusion rules: occupation SOC 49-9021 (heating, air conditioning and refrigeration mechanics and installers). Training awards are CIP 47.0201 (HVAC maintenance technology) and CIP 15.0501 (HVAC engineering technology), first major only, all award levels, at institutions located in the 50 states and DC. Puerto Rico and other territories are excluded from state figures because state projections and ACS rows for them are not comparable.

Conflicting numbers: national openings appear as 40,600 (BLS 2025 to 2035) and 40,100 (BLS 2024 to 2034, the US row in Projections Central). The newer figure is used for national statements; the older one is used in every ratio so that national and state figures share the 2024 to 2034 period. OEWS employment (409,670) and Employment Projections employment (440,900) differ mainly because the latter includes the self-employed.

Derived metrics: completions per 100 openings, technicians per 10,000 occupied homes, price-adjusted wages, real wage changes and the composite index are computed by scripts/02_compute.py and listed with formulas in derived_metrics.csv. Index scores are percentile ranks among 51 jurisdictions with ties averaged, combined with equal weights.

Release choice: the index uses the latest final IPEDS year, 2022-23 (final/revised release September 2025). The provisional 2023-24 file is shown beside it in table t2 as a sensitivity check; with it, 40 rather than 43 jurisdictions fall below 100.

Limitations: see the limits list. Last updated 2026-11-02. Data and tables are licensed CC BY 4.0; please credit HVAC Business Brokers Research Desk and link to this page. This report is part of the research library of HVAC Business Brokers.

This report presents published data with its limitations. It is not legal, financial or investment advice.

Sources, ranked by quality

Tier 1: primary and official sources (19)

• [1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS OEWS May 2025 state file (oesm25st.zip). May 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [2] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS OEWS May 2025 national file (oesm25nat.zip). May 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [3] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Employment and Wages, May 2025 (news release USDL-26-0725). May 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [4] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Projections 2025 to 2035, occupation tables 1.2 and 1.10 (occupation.xlsx). 2025 to 2035. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [5] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Projections: 2025-2035 Summary (news release USDL-26-1422). 2025 to 2035. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [6] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Occupational Outlook Handbook: Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers. 2025 to 2035. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [7] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Projections Table 5.3: Education and training assignments by detailed occupation. 2025 to 2035. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [8] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment Projections Table 1.10: Occupational separations and openings, 2025 to 2035. 2025 to 2035. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [9] Projections Managing Partnership (state labor market information offices, U.S. Department of Labor funded). Long-term occupational projections by state, SOC 49-9021 (Projections Central REST endpoint). 2024 to 2034. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [10] National Center for Education Statistics. IPEDS Completions 2022-23, final/revised release (C2023_A, file C2023_a_RV.csv). 2022-23 award year. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [11] National Center for Education Statistics. IPEDS Completions 2023-24, provisional release (C2024_A) and data dictionary. 2023-24 award year. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [12] National Center for Education Statistics. IPEDS Institutional Characteristics directory files HD2023 and HD2024. 2023 and 2024. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [13] National Center for Education Statistics. IPEDS Completions 2018-19 to 2021-22, final/revised releases (C2019_A to C2022_A). 2018-19 to 2021-22. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [14] U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey 2025 1-year, table B25002 Occupancy Status (summary file). 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [15] U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Regional Price Parities by state (SARPP), 2008 to 2024. 2024. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [16] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI-U, U.S. city average, all items, not seasonally adjusted (series CUUR0000SA0, flat file). May 2015 to May 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [17] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. BLS OEWS national files, May 2015 to May 2024 (oesm15nat.zip to oesm24nat.zip). May 2015 to May 2024. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [18] Electronic Code of Federal Regulations. 40 CFR 82.161 Technician certification (eCFR, current as of 2026-10-29). current as of 2026-10-29. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [19] U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Apprenticeship. Apprenticeship.gov Data and Statistics (dashboards index). checked 2026-11-02. Accessed 2026-11-02.

Tier 3: journalism and expert commentary (3)

• [20] ServiceTitan. HVAC Technician Shortage: Causes, Impacts, Strategies, and More (blog). not dated on page. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [21] HVACClasses.org. Which States Have the Highest Demand for HVAC Workers? (updated April 29, 2025). May 2024 data. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [22] HVACR Trends. The HVAC Technician Shortage: What 2031 Could Look (February 26, 2026). 2026-02-26. Accessed 2026-11-02.