Heat Pump Sales vs Gas Furnaces: US Shipments From 2009 to August 2026

Heat pump sales passed gas furnaces in 2020, slipped in 2021, and have led since 2022

Across 17 years of AHRI data, heat pumps went from 0.755 units per gas furnace in 2009 to a high of 1.321 in 2024. The crossover was not a clean line: 2020 was a narrow heat pump year and 2021 went back to furnaces.

In 2009, US manufacturers shipped 1,642,064 air-source heat pumps and 2,174,528 gas furnaces (AHRI December 2010 release). By 2025 the figures were 3,644,596 and 3,247,426 (AHRI December 2025 release).

Heat pumps first outshipped gas furnaces in 2020, 3,418,478 to 3,351,176, a lead of 67,302 units. In 2021 gas furnace shipments jumped to 4,008,894, the highest in the series, and finished 92,128 units ahead of heat pumps (AHRI December 2023 release). Heat pumps have led every year since: 1.119 to 1 in 2022, 1.21 in 2023, 1.321 in 2024 and 1.122 in 2025.

What it means for an owner: heat pumps were 52.6% of heat pump plus gas and oil furnace shipments in 2025, so a heating offer built only around furnaces covers less than half of the heating equipment US manufacturers ship.

Why a January to August lead overstates the full year

Furnaces ship late in the year. Comparing heat pumps and furnaces on a year-to-date basis before December flatters heat pumps, by 0.119 ratio points in 2025 and 0.088 in 2024.

Seasonally matched ratio: Heat pumps shipped divided by gas furnaces shipped over the same calendar months in each year, here January to August, taken from one AHRI release so all three years carry the same revisions.

AHRI's August 2026 release reports January to August shipments for 2024, 2025 and 2026 side by side (AHRI August 2026 release). Heat pumps led gas furnaces 1.409 to 1 in those months of 2024, 1.241 to 1 in 2025 and 1.381 to 1 in 2026.

Set against full-year totals, the January to August ratio ran 0.088 above the final figure in 2024 and 0.119 above it in 2025. The reason is timing: 31.8% of 2025 gas furnace shipments came in September to December, against 24.5% of heat pump shipments. In 2024 the shares were 35.6% and 31.3%.

What it means for an owner: a mid-year headline that heat pumps lead by a wide margin will narrow by December. The 2026 Jan to Aug ratio of 1.381 sits between the 2024 and 2025 readings; we do not project a full-year figure from it.

Month by month since 2020, furnaces still win the late fall

Across 80 months from January 2020 to August 2026, gas furnaces outshipped heat pumps in 20 months, all of them between August and March. Heat pumps outshipped central air conditioners in 5 months, all in late 2025 and January 2026.

The monthly heat pump to gas furnace ratio ranged from 0.686 in December 2020 to 1.686 in July 2024 (AHRI 2025 monthly releases). In 2025 the furnace months were September, October, November and December; in 2024 only December.

• September 2025: 265,689 heat pumps against 263,291 central air conditioners.
• October 2025: 209,883 against 202,990.
• November 2025: 198,247 against 181,223.
• December 2025: 219,529 against 188,715.
• January 2026: 229,957 against 210,862.

RMI's tracker reported heat pumps above one-way air conditioners in October, November and December 2025. The September 2025 and January 2026 margins in AHRI's releases are small and could reverse when AHRI revises those months.

What it means for an owner: heat pump volume now holds up into the shoulder months, which spreads installation work more evenly across the year than a furnace and straight-cool mix does.

Nearly half of the outdoor units shipped in 2025 were heat pumps

Within AHRI's central AC and heat pump category, the heat pump share rose from 31.8% in 2009 to 47.0% in 2025. Most of the 2025 jump came from air conditioners falling faster than heat pumps.

In 2025 central air conditioner shipments fell 26.2% and heat pump shipments fell 11.6%, which lifted the heat pump share of the combined category from 42.6% in 2024 to 47.0%. For January to August 2026 the share was 45.5%, with air conditioners recovering faster (6.5%) than heat pumps (5.7%).

The category is mostly residential equipment: 96.5% of 2025 central AC and heat pump shipments were under 65,000 BTUH, AHRI's residential size line (AHRI December 2025 workbook). AHRI does not publish the size split for heat pumps alone.

What it means for an owner: the outdoor equipment a residential crew sets is close to an even split between heat pumps and straight-cool condensers nationally, so technician training and parts stock on reversing valves, defrost controls and heat pump charging now apply to nearly half of the work.

Only about one US home in seven heats mainly with a heat pump

EIA's RECS 2020 counted 17.19 million homes heated mainly by a central or ductless heat pump, 13.9% of 123.53 million. The South holds most of them.

The South Atlantic (30.1%) and East South Central (31.8%) divisions have the highest central heat pump shares (EIA RECS 2020 HC6.8). New England (1.7%) and East North Central (3.4%) have the lowest, where central furnaces heat 78.8% of East North Central homes (EIA RECS 2020 HC6.7).

Shipments run well ahead of this installed base. In 2020, AHRI members shipped 3,418,478 heat pumps, or 19.9 for every 100 homes heated mainly by a heat pump. Gas furnace shipments that year were 6.3 per 100 homes heated mainly by a gas furnace. Heat pumps are going into many homes RECS does not count as heat pump homes: cooling replacements where a furnace still carries the heat, dual-fuel systems, new construction and light commercial jobs. This is a ratio of shipments to stock, not a replacement rate.

What it means for an owner: in most of the North and West, the service base an acquirer inherits is still furnace-heated; heat pump service revenue there is a newer and smaller book than the shipment headlines suggest.

New houses are near an even split, and the West moved fastest

In 2025, 483 thousand of 1005 thousand new single-family houses were completed with a heat pump and 490 thousand with a forced-air furnace. The West's heat pump share rose 25 points in five years.

Census data on new single-family houses completed (Characteristics of New Housing) show the heat pump share at 63% in the South, 42% in the West, 14% in the Northeast and 7% in the Midwest in 2025. The Midwest share fell from 10% in 2020.

Our second derived measure divides the 2025 new-home heat pump share by the 2020 share of existing homes heated mainly by a central heat pump. In the West new houses are 6.7 times as likely to get a heat pump as the existing stock is to have one as main heat; in the South the multiple is 2.4, in the Northeast 3.9 and in the Midwest 1.8.

What it means for an owner: in the West, the newest homes in a service area are where heat pump maintenance agreements will come from; in the Midwest, new construction has not moved toward heat pumps.

Mobile homes and newer houses lean heat pump, pre-1950 houses do not

Heat pump main heat ranged from 4.2% of homes built before 1950 to 20.8% of homes built from 2016 to 2020 (RECS 2020).

By housing type, mobile homes had the highest central heat pump share in 2020 at 23.1%, followed by single-family detached houses at 13.0% and apartments in buildings of five or more units at 12.6% (EIA RECS 2020 HC6.1). By age, every decade from the 1980s on sits between 17.2% and 20.8% (EIA RECS 2020 HC6.3).

What it means for an owner: the age and type of the housing in a territory predicts the equipment mix on service calls better than national shipment totals do.

What a shipment count can and cannot tell an HVAC owner

AHRI counts units that change ownership from member manufacturers to US customers. It is the best free national series, with known gaps.

Shipment: A unit whose ownership transfers from the manufacturer; consignments are excluded (AHRI FAQ). A shipment can sit in distributor stock for months before it is installed.

• Ductless included: AHRI's 2026 product definitions place ducted and non-ducted (ductless) split systems inside the central AC and air-source heat pump categories; window and wall units are excluded.
• Commercial units included: the category runs to rooftop sizes above 65,000 BTUH, which made up the remaining share beyond the 96.5% residential-size portion in 2025.
• Revisions: AHRI restates prior months; this report uses the latest release that reports each figure, and the monthly values sum exactly to AHRI's December totals for 2020 to 2025.
• Coverage: AHRI members make more than 90 percent of North American equipment of these kinds, but AHRI does not publish what share its statistics program captures.
• No state data: AHRI states that state or regional shipment data are not public, so regional comparisons here rely on EIA and Census housing data.

Ratios behind the comparison

Download the calculations (CSV)

Where the numbers diverge

1. US air-source heat pump shipments were 3,644,596 units in 2025, down 11.6% from 4,122,004 in 2024 (AHRI, units shipped).^[1]
2. US gas furnace shipments rose 4.1% to 3,247,426 units in 2025.^[1]
3. US central air conditioner shipments fell 26.2% to 4,104,933 units in 2025.^[1]
4. Heat pumps outshipped gas furnaces by 397,170 units in 2025, a 12.2% lead.^[1]
5. The first year in the 2009 to 2025 AHRI series in which heat pumps outshipped gas furnaces was 2020, by 67,302 units.^[7][8]
6. Gas furnaces outshipped heat pumps in 2021 by 92,128 units (4,008,894 against 3,916,766).^[6]
7. The heat pump to gas furnace ratio rose from 0.755 in 2009 to a peak of 1.321 in 2024, then fell to 1.122 in 2025.^[10][1]
8. Heat pump shipments peaked in 2022 at 4,334,479 units; 2025 was 15.9% below that peak.^[6][1]
9. From 2009 to 2025, annual US heat pump shipments grew 122.0% and gas furnace shipments grew 49.3%.^[10][1]
10. January to August 2026: 2,908,644 heat pumps and 2,106,454 gas furnaces shipped, a ratio of 1.381.^[2]
11. Heat pumps were 47.0% of central AC plus heat pump shipments in 2025, up from 31.8% in 2009.^[1][10]
12. In 2020, 13.1% of US homes (16.13 million of 123.53 million) heated mainly with a central heat pump, and 1.06 million more with a ductless heat pump (EIA RECS 2020).^[23]
13. In the South Atlantic division, 30.1% of homes heated mainly with a central heat pump in 2020; in East North Central the figure was 3.4%.^[23][24]
14. The share of new single-family houses in the West completed with a heat pump rose from 17% in 2020 to 42% in 2025 (Census).^[29]
15. 23.1% of mobile homes heated mainly with a central heat pump in 2020, against 13.0% of single-family detached houses.^[25]

Summary

• US manufacturers shipped 3,644,596 air-source heat pumps in 2025, against 3,247,426 gas furnaces and 4,104,933 central air conditioners (AHRI, December 2025 release).
• Heat pumps first outshipped gas furnaces in 2020 (1.02 to 1), dropped back below in 2021 (0.977 to 1), and have led every year from 2022 to 2025; the ratio peaked at 1.321 in 2024.
• Our signature measure: a January to August comparison flatters heat pumps. In 2025 the Jan to Aug ratio was 1.241 but the full-year ratio was 1.122, because 31.8% of 2025 gas furnaces shipped in September to December against 24.5% of heat pumps.
• Through August 2026, heat pump shipments were up 5.7% on the same months of 2025 and gas furnaces were down 5.0%, putting the Jan to Aug ratio at 1.381.
• Heat pumps outshipped central air conditioners for 5 straight months, September 2025 to January 2026, the only such months in our 80-month series.
• Only 13.9% of US homes heated mainly with a central or ductless heat pump in 2020 (EIA RECS), from 31.8% in the East South Central division to 1.7% (central units) in New England.
• In new construction the split is nearly even: 48% of new single-family houses completed in 2025 had a heat pump and 49% a forced-air furnace (Census).

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Reproduce this analysis

Every figure comes from the files below. The scripts that pulled and computed them are kept with the report and can be re-run.

Data quality and exclusions

• 60 AHRI release PDFs parsed (text extraction with pdftotext): 29 fetched directly from AHRI and 31 as Internet Archive copies of official AHRI URLs that block automated clients.
• 1 file (December 2024 release, Word format) was downloaded but not parsed: every figure it holds is restated in the December 2025 release, which we used instead.
• 0 of 320 monthly cells (80 months x 4 products) had to be derived from year-to-date differences; all were stated directly in a release.
• Monthly heat pump, central AC and gas furnace values for each year 2020 to 2025 sum exactly to AHRI's December year-to-date totals (6 of 6 years reconcile).
• 3 RECS 2020 ductless heat pump cells (East South Central, West North Central, East North Central) are withheld by EIA (Q); they are treated as zero in the any-heat-pump share, which is therefore a floor.
• Census cells marked (Z) or (S) were not used. The source's standard errors for the regional heat pump percentages run from 2 percentage points (Midwest) to 9 (West), so the West multiple in t5 is the least precise.

Methodology

Source selection: the shipment series comes only from AHRI's free monthly statistical releases, the industry body's own publication. Installed-base and new-construction figures come from EIA's 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey and the Census Bureau's Characteristics of New Housing. Trade press and advocacy trackers are cited only to compare claims.

Access: AHRI release files on ahrinet.org/sites/default/files were downloaded directly. Files on ahrinet.org/system/files sit behind a browser challenge for automated clients; we did not bypass it and instead used Internet Archive captures of the same official URLs (HTTP 200, PDF), labelled as such in the source list and logged with capture timestamps in raw/ahri/file_manifest.json.

Revisions and conflicts: AHRI restates earlier months. Every annual and monthly value uses the most recent AHRI release that reports it (a release reports the current month, the same month a year earlier, and year-to-date totals for up to three years). Annual totals are December year-to-date figures, which AHRI states equal the calendar year. Monthly values for 2020 to 2025 sum exactly to the December totals.

Derived metrics: ratios, shares, gaps and multiples are computed in scripts/07_build_tables.py and listed with formulas and fact-sheet row numbers in derived_metrics.csv. The seasonally matched ratio uses January to August figures for three years from a single release (August 2026) so all three carry the same revisions.

Limitations: shipments are not installations; AHRI does not publish state data or heat pump size splits; the AHRI category includes some light commercial units and, per AHRI's 2026 definitions, ductless systems; RECS 2020 predates the 2022 to 2025 shipment years; Census counts air-source and ground-source heat pumps together.

Last updated 2 November 2026 using AHRI's August 2026 release (published 9 October 2026). This report is part of the research library of HVAC Business Brokers.

This report presents published data with its limitations. It is not legal, financial or investment advice.

Sources, ranked by quality

Tier 1: primary and official sources (31)

• [1] AHRI. AHRI Releases December 2025 U.S. Heating and Cooling Equipment Shipment Data (released 2026-02-13). 2023 to 2025 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [2] AHRI. AHRI Releases August 2026 U.S. Heating and Cooling Equipment Shipment Data (released 2026-10-09). January to August 2024, 2025, 2026. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [3] AHRI. Monthly Shipments (release index and schedule). 2010 to 2026 release list. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [4] AHRI. Product Definitions and FAQs: U.S. Heating and Cooling Equipment Shipment Data. definitions as of 2026. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [5] AHRI. December 2025 Numbers (public Excel workbook). 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [6] AHRI. AHRI December 2023 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2021 to 2023 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [7] AHRI. AHRI December 2021 Statistical Release. 2019 to 2021 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [8] AHRI. AHRI December 2022 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2020 to 2022 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [9] AHRI. AHRI December 2019 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2018 and 2019 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [10] AHRI. AHRI December 2010 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2009 and 2010 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [11] AHRI. AHRI December 2011 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2010 and 2011 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [12] AHRI. AHRI December 2012 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2011 and 2012 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [13] AHRI. AHRI December 2013 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2012 and 2013 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [14] AHRI. AHRI December 2014 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2013 and 2014 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [15] AHRI. AHRI December 2015 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2014 and 2015 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [16] AHRI. AHRI December 2016 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2015 and 2016 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [17] AHRI. AHRI December 2017 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2016 and 2017 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [18] AHRI. AHRI December 2018 Statistical Release (Internet Archive copy of the official AHRI file). 2017 and 2018 full years. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [19] AHRI. AHRI monthly statistical releases, January to November 2021 (11 PDFs, file list in repro). monthly 2020 and 2021. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [20] AHRI. AHRI monthly statistical releases, January to November 2023 (Internet Archive copies, file list in repro). monthly 2022 and 2023. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [21] AHRI. AHRI monthly statistical releases, January to November 2025 (public files and Internet Archive copies, file list in repro). monthly 2024 and 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [22] AHRI. AHRI monthly statistical releases, January to July 2026 (7 PDFs, file list in repro). monthly 2025 and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [23] U.S. Energy Information Administration. RECS 2020 Table HC6.7: Space heating in homes in the Northeast and Midwest regions (final release March 2023). 2020. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [24] U.S. Energy Information Administration. RECS 2020 Table HC6.8: Space heating in homes in the South and West regions (final release March 2023). 2020. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [25] U.S. Energy Information Administration. RECS 2020 Table HC6.1: Space heating in U.S. homes, by housing unit type. 2020. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [26] U.S. Energy Information Administration. RECS 2020 Table HC6.3: Space heating in U.S. homes, by year of construction. 2020. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [27] U.S. Energy Information Administration. RECS 2020 Table HC7.1: Air conditioning in U.S. homes, by housing unit type. 2020. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [28] U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2024 Residential Energy Consumption Survey data page (space heating tables scheduled for spring 2027). 2024 survey. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [29] U.S. Census Bureau. Characteristics of New Housing: Type of Heating System Used in New Single-Family Houses Completed. 1973 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [30] U.S. Census Bureau. Characteristics of New Housing: Current Data (2025 annual data published 2026-07-01). 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [31] eCFR, Office of the Federal Register. 40 CFR 84.54 Restrictions on the use of hydrofluorocarbons (eCFR, current through 2026-10-29). rule text as of 2026-10-29. Accessed 2026-11-02.

Tier 2: trade bodies, market research, company data (1)

• [32] RMI. Tracking the Heat Pump and Water Heater Market in the United States. May 2025 to June 2026. Accessed 2026-11-02.

Tier 3: journalism and expert commentary (2)

• [33] Canary Media. Heat pump sales dipped in 2025. They still beat gas furnaces.. 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.
• [34] ACHR News. Heat Pump, A/C Shipments See 20% Declines in 2025 (2026-02-25). 2025. Accessed 2026-11-02.